Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.
We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail.
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LEADING THE DAY:
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Happy Primary Day! I’m coming to you from Manchester’s famous Airport Diner, a frequent spot for the candidates on the trail!
Voters have been making stops at their local polling places since this morning, while the candidates have also made their way to some precincts.
The first votes of the day were cast in the tiny Granite State town of Dixville Notch, which is roughly 20 miles south of the Canadian border. Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael BloombergEngel scrambles to fend off primary challenge from left It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process Liberals embrace super PACs they once shunned MORE, who isn’t competing in New Hampshire, won the town’s first count at midnight with 3 write-in votes. Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE split the other two votes cast.
Today’s primary could prove to be make or break for a number of candidates. Sens. Sanders and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) are competing on home turf, being two New England senators. Sanders is leading in a number of polls, and a win in the Granite State could give him the momentum he lost in the Iowa counting debacle going into Nevada and South Carolina. Warren, on the other hand has seen a decline in the polls, in New Hampshire and nationally. A less-than stellar performance in the state could cost her going into Nevada, South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states, when the field starts to solidify.
Buttigieg, who has acted like the victor coming out of Iowa despite the results irregularities, could also benefit from the momentum of a New Hampshire win. Buttigieg will likely have an uphill climb in more diverse states like South Carolina and Nevada, so he will really need to prove himself tonight. Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) is hoping for a Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonWill the ‘law and order’ president pardon Roger Stone? Five ways America would take a hard left under Joe Biden The sad spectacle of Trump’s enablers MORE-style “comeback kid” moment in New Hampshire tonight. Recent polling out of the state shows her surging to third place behind Sanders and Buttigieg, but she still faces an uphill road ahead. Like Buttigieg, she could also have difficulty in the more diverse states ahead. And despite recent gains in fundraising, she is still far behind the other candidates.
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That leaves us with Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE, who had a less than stellar fourth place showing in Iowa and has polled poorly in New Hampshire. His events have been much more intimate than those of Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. He and his campaign appear to be taking note. He announced earlier today that he would not be attending his primary night rally in New Hampshire and would instead travel to South Carolina, where he has a broader support.
Your team on the ground has you covered tonight in the Granite State. Jonathan Easley will be at Sanders’s results party in Manchester, while Cate Martel will be at Klobuchar’s event in Concord. Yours truly will be on hand for Buttigieg’s party in Nashua.
–Julia Manchester
ROADSIDE SUPPORT: A number of supporters came out to the polling place at Ledge Street Elementary School in Nashua.
READ MORE:
Democrats set for New Hampshire thriller, by Jonathan
Democrats battle for New Hampshire’s undeclared voters, from Jonathan
The Memo: New Hampshire spells danger for struggling candidates, by The Hill’s Niall Stanage
Political tourists swarm New Hampshire, from Julia and Cate
Klobuchar attracts big crowds in primary’s final days, by Julia
FROM THE TRAIL:
LIKE CLOCKWORK: President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE rallied supporters in Manchester, N.H., on Monday night, offering a kind of counterprogramming to the Democratic campaign blitz that has overtaken the state ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary contest, Julia reports. In a speech, Trump took on the candidates vying to challenge him in the 2020 general election, asserting that “they’re all weak” opponents. He also seized on the chaos surrounding last week’s Iowa caucuses, suggesting without evidence that the Democratic Party was trying to rig the nominating contest against Sanders. “I think they’re trying to take it away from Bernie,” Trump said. “They’re doing it to you Bernie. They’re doing it to you again.”
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BIDEN WORLD ON EDGE: Allies and aides to Biden are beginning to wonder whether the former vice president has a clear path to the Democratic nomination amid a worse-than-expected finish in Iowa and sinking political prospects in New Hampshire, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports. That sense of doom has led some allies to question his chances in Nevada and even South Carolina, where he has worked for months to build up something of a firewall. Meanwhile, Sen. Sanders, Buttigieg and Bloomberg have surged in national polls, undercutting Biden’s claim that, despite his performance in Iowa, he’s still ahead nationally.
The former vice president decided to skip out on a primary night party in the Granite State to travel to South Carolina and headline an event alongside Rep. Cedric RichmondCedric Levon RichmondMore than 6000 attend George Floyd’s Houston viewing States plead for cybersecurity funds as hacking threat surges Democrats lobby Biden on VP choice MORE (D-La..), .
BLOOMBERG UNDER FIRE: Bloomberg is defending his record on race relations and the stop-and-frisk policy used by New York City police during his tenure as mayor amid attacks from Trump and his campaign, The Hill’s Zack Budryk reports. Both the president and his campaign manager Brad ParscaleBradley (Brad) James ParscaleMORE highlighted an unearthed clip of the former mayor defending the policy, saying, “Ninety-five percent of your murders — murderers and murder victims — fit one M.O. You can just take the description, Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops. They are male, minorities, 16 to 25. That’s true in New York, it’s true in virtually every city.” In response, Bloomberg’s campaign issued a statement from the candidate himself: “President Trump’s deleted tweet is the latest example of his endless efforts to divide Americans. I inherited the police practice of stop-and-frisk, and as part of our effort to stop gun violence it was overused. By the time I left office, I cut it back by 95%, but I should’ve done it faster and sooner. I regret that and I have apologized — and I have taken responsibility for taking too long to understand the impact it had on Black and Latino communities.”
PERSPECTIVES:
Brad Bannon: Nothing is set in stone in the Granite State
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Liz Peek: New Hampshire could be a big win for Bloomberg
Mike Greenfield and Nancy Zdunkewicz: The political technology meltdown in Iowa
FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES:
ARIZONA SENATE: Sen. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police No evidence of unauthorized data transfers by top Chinese drone manufacturer: study Senate Democratic campaign arm launches online hub ahead of November MORE (R-Ariz.) formally kicked off her 2020 Senate bid on Tuesday, The Hill’s Rebecca Klar reports. McSally is one of the most vulnerable senators facing voters this year. She lost her 2018 Senate race to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and only got her current seat after Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed her to replace the late Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Cindy McCain ‘disappointed’ McGrath used image of John McCain in ad attacking McConnell Report that Bush won’t support Trump reelection ‘completely made up,’ spokesman says MORE (R-Ariz.). This year, she’s facing a strong challenge from retired astronaut Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), who has repeatedly outraised her and leads in recent polls.
ALABAMA SENATE: Alabama’s Republican Senate primary may be closer than previously thought, according to internal polling released by Rep. Bradley ByrneBradley Roberts ByrneOvernight Defense: Pentagon chief says he opposes invoking Insurrection Act for protests | White House dodges on Trump’s confidence in Esper | ‘Angry and appalled’ Mattis scorches Trump Republicans stand by Esper after public break with Trump Democrats press OSHA official on issuing an Emergency Temporary Standard MORE’s (R-Ala.) campaign on Tuesday. The poll shows Jeff SessionsJefferson (Jeff) Beauregard SessionsMcCabe, Rosenstein spar over Russia probe Rosenstein takes fire from Republicans in heated testimony Rosenstein defends Mueller appointment, role on surveillance warrants MORE, the former senator and United States attorney general, in the lead with 31 percent support, down from 36 percent in a similar December poll. Byrne, meanwhile, surged 10 points to 26 percent, and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville fell 5 points to 24 percent. The internal poll was first reported on Tuesday by the Alabama political news website Yellowhammer News.
POLL WATCH:
MONMOUTH – NATIONAL
Sanders: 26 percent (+3)
Biden: 16 percent (-14)
Buttigieg: 13 percent (+7)
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Warren: 13 percent (-1)
Bloomberg: 11 percent (+2)
Klobuchar: 6 percent (+1)
Yang: 4 percent (+1)
MORNING CONSULT – NATIONAL
Sanders: 25 percent (+1)
Biden: 22 percent (-6)
Bloomberg: 17 percent (+3)
Buttigieg: 11 percent (+5)
Warren: 11 percent (-3)
Yang: 4 percent (+/-0)
Klobuchar: 3 percent (+/-0)
Steyer: 3 percent (+/-0)
MARK YOUR CALENDARS:
The New Hampshire primary is TODAY. There are 11 days until the Nevada caucuses, 18 days until the South Carolina primary and 21 days until Super Tuesday.
ONE FUN THING:
PONIES 4 ALL: Vermin Supreme is a mainstay of New Hampshire presidential primary politics, often making his pitch to give every American a pony if elected president.
Our own Cate Martel saw Supreme’s platform in action this week when he paid a visit to the DoubleTree in downtown Manchester where most of Washington’s media has gathered during the primary.
.@VerminSupreme and his supporters just swarmed the @DTManchesterNH lobby. Looks like his ponies weren’t allowed inside though. #nhpolitics #fitn pic.twitter.com/6gTsN58IjF
— Cate Martel (@CateMartel) February 9, 2020
No, your eyes do not deceive you. Supreme paraded a pony around the hotel. Talk about keeping a campaign promise!
Our only question is who’s willing to pay for that?
Be sure to follow @thehill on Twitter and Instagram, and online at TheHill.com for the latest primary coverage.
If tonight is nothing like Iowa, we’ll see you with tomorrow’s primary results!