A week ago in this space, I argued that North Korea might not be aware of just how unique its current negotiating opportunity is. The American president – Donald Trump – and South Korean President – Moon Jae-In – are more dovish on North Korea than any of their predecessors. And that their two dovish presidencies overlap is genuinely unique: North Korea will likely not see an alignment like this for many years to come. I suggested it is, therefore, puzzling that the North has so brusquely ignored Moon, nor made Trump any kind of serious offer. This Northern response is fuel for hawks to argue, post-Trump and Moon, that North Korea is not serious about negotiations and can only be confronted.
Regrettably, the North does not seem to read the Moon-Trump alignment as a unique, dovish window of opportunity. Rather, it has declared a self-imposed year-end deadline. If U.S.-North Korean relations have not improved much by the end of 2019, the North is threatening some manner of retaliation. The North is characteristically vague about this. There is much debate about both whether the North will hold to this deadline – the North has used such timelines as a negotiating tactic in the past – and what Northern retaliation might be.
The most obvious breach would be a long-range missile test. There is a shaky gentleman’s agreement between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un that the North will not test long-range rockets during negotiations with the Americans. Kim has danced around limits of this informal ban all year, with various short-range tests that threaten Japan. These were likely to pressure Trump via Tokyo without actually breaking the informal long-range ban. Trump, anxious to maintain at least the appearance of progress, has not called out these shorter tests.
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