The senators who are most likely to reject President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE’s nominees are the very ones who want to challenge him in 2020.
The Hill’s review of 2 ½ years of vote totals shows Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.), Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Warren, Pressley introduce bill to make it a crime for police officers to deny medical care to people in custody Senate Dems press DOJ over coronavirus safety precautions in juvenile detention centers MORE (D-N.Y.) and Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) voted against more Trump nominees than any other senator.
At the same time, Republicans voted virtually in lockstep for Trump’s nominees; the average GOP senator backed 99 percent of his picks, and the one who went rogue most often — Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Louisville passes ‘Breonna’s Law’ banning no-knock warrants Rand Paul aide joins Trump campaign, RNC fundraising group MORE (R-Ky.) — still voted to confirm 93 percent of his nominees.
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Trump’s picks to fill positions in his administration and the judiciary illustrate an increasingly partisan divide in the Senate between Republicans who vote to confirm almost every nominee and Democrats who reject the vast majority.
The average Democrat has voted to confirm just 38 percent of Trump’s nominees.
And that number has been falling in recent months.
In the 115th Congress, the average Democrat backed roughly 39 percent of Trump’s nominees. In the first six months of the 116th Congress, that number fell to 34 percent, according to data provided by Quorum Analytics, a public affairs data firm.
This year, leading the charge against Trump’s nominees are many of the candidates who are running against him in 2020.
Warren and Gillibrand have voted in favor of just 11 percent of Trump’s nominees over the last 2 ½ years. The two Democrats have voted to confirm only six of his judicial nominees — all in the 115th Congress. This year, they have voted to confirm just three of Trump’s nominees, including two members of the Export-Import Bank and a member of the Federal Highway Administration.
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Sanders has voted to confirm only 12 percent of Trump’s nominees, but he has not voted to confirm a single Trump nominee this year. Sanders even opposed the three nominees Warren and Gillibrand voted to confirm.
Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) and Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.) have voted in favor of 17 percent and 15 percent of Trump’s nominees, respectively. Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) has voted to confirm 38 percent of those nominees, putting her in line with the average Senate Democrat.
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But in what may be a sign of just how important opposing Trump is to the Democratic base, Klobuchar’s voting record changed noticeably in the run-up to her decision to enter the presidential field. In the 115th Congress, she voted to confirm 84 of Trump’s 180 nominees, or about 47 percent. In this Congress, she has voted to confirm fewer than one in 10 nominees.
“For people who seek the nomination, opposing Trump and in particular conservative judges will be a positive for party activists,” said Sarah Binder, a political scientist at George Washington University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetSome realistic solutions for income inequality Democratic senators kneel during moment of silence for George Floyd 21 senators urge Pentagon against military use to curb nationwide protests MORE (D-Colo.), another 2020 contender, has voted to confirm half of Trump’s nominees, more than all but seven other members of the Democratic caucus.
Those seven members who have voted to confirm more than half of Trump’s nominees reflect the centrist flank, whose ranks were thinned in 2018 when former Sens. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE (D-N.D.), Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMissouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties Senate faces protracted floor fight over judges amid pandemic safety concerns Amash on eyeing presidential bid: ‘Millions of Americans’ want someone other than Trump, Biden MORE (D-Mo.) and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (D-Ind.) all lost their reelection bids.
The centrist coalition is anchored by two Democrats who won reelection in red states last year: Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump administration seeks to use global aid for nuclear projects Shelley Moore Capito wins Senate primary West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice wins GOP gubernatorial primary MORE (D-W.Va.) and Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate confirms Trump’s watchdog for coronavirus funds Montana barrels toward blockbuster Senate fight The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE (D-Mont.). Manchin has voted to approve three-quarters of Trump’s nominees. Tester has voted for 55 percent of those nominees.
A new member, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), has so far voted to approve two-thirds of Trump’s nominees.
Sens. Angus KingAngus KingSenator suggests law enforcement used ‘excessive force’ in Lafayette Square incident Trump administration could pursue drilling near Florida coast post-election: report Hillicon Valley: Chinese tech groups caught in rising US-China tensions | Senator questions controversial facial recognition group on use during protests | Study finds vulnerabilities in online voting system used by several states MORE (I-Maine), Mark WarnerMark Robert WarnerVirginia senator calls for Barr to resign over order to clear protests Trump asserts his power over Republicans Expanding tax credit for businesses retaining workers gains bipartisan support MORE (D-Va.), Tom CarperThomas (Tom) Richard CarperSenate subcommittee: IRS should increase oversight of tax-prep companies in Free File program Senate report: Chinese telecom firms operated in US without proper oversight for decades House Judiciary seeks briefing on Trump order to slash regs to assist the economy MORE (D-Del.) and Christopher CoonsChristopher (Chris) Andrew CoonsMnuchin indicates openness to more PPP loans in next COVID-19 relief bill Coronavirus Report: The Hill’s Steve Clemons interviews Michelle McMurry-Heath Republicans turning against new round of ,200 rebate checks MORE (D-Del.) have all voted for more than half of Trump’s nominees, the data shows.
Fifteen Republican senators have never voted against one of Trump’s nominees, and five senators — Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE (R-Ky.), Majority Whip John CornynJohn CornynSenate headed for late night vote amid standoff over lands bill Koch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Tim Scott to introduce GOP police reform bill next week MORE (R-Texas) and Sens. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police No evidence of unauthorized data transfers by top Chinese drone manufacturer: study Senate Democratic campaign arm launches online hub ahead of November MORE (R-Ariz.), Kevin CramerKevin John CramerRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans MORE (R-N.D.) and Roger WickerRoger Frederick WickerPrivate lawsuits are a necessary expedient in privacy legislation Bottom line GOP faces internal conflicts on fifth coronavirus bill MORE (R-Miss.) — have never missed a vote on a Trump nominee.
Paul, the Republican outlier, has voted against 16 Trump nominees, more than any other member of his party.
The partisan divide over presidential nominations reflects a long-term trend toward what activists in both parties see as increasingly high-stakes positions.
The vast majority of nominations confirmed by the Senate in the first two centuries of American history did not even require roll call votes, because significant opposition was so rare, said Binder.
But in the past three decades, those roll call votes have become increasingly frequent as judicial nominees in particular became important to party activists, first on the Republican side and now among Democrats too.
“We don’t often have recorded roll call votes routinely until you hit the ’90s, when you had Republican reactions to [former President] Clinton’s nominees,” Binder said. “There was much less opposition. Not to say that there was no opposition, but judges hadn’t become such a cause for Republicans.”
The Trump administration has faced a particularly divided Senate, in part because Trump nominated so few candidates for low-level and noncontroversial positions, said Terry Sullivan, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina and executive director of the White House Transition Project, a nonpartisan advisory group.
Trump offered fewer nominees in his first two years in office than former Presidents Reagan, Clinton and Obama did in their first 12 months. He also announced and then withdrew more nominees than the last five presidents combined. Those he did nominate tended to be for more high-profile positions that are more likely to start partisan fights.
But the polarization of the nominating process long predated Trump. It has been exacerbated in recent years as separate Senate majorities have changed the rules to reduce the number of votes a given nominee needs to achieve to advance, Sullivan said.
The most recent rules change, lowering the threshold at which Supreme Court nominees could reach cloture, further removed incentives for any administration to reach bipartisan consensus.
“In order to get some nominees through the process that would previously not [have] managed to get through, the Senate majority has taken a dramatic swing to the right, moving the average Senate confirmation much closer to its own right wing and away from the majoritarian middle among the Senators,” Sullivan said.